Guest post by Dr. Ken Mayland, Clearview Economics
Here is a picture of the last year of durable goods orders and shipments (in nominal, not inflation-adjusted terms).
Orders and shipments are both below July levels.
Furthermore, orders have fallen significantly below shipments, which is not a good sign for future production.
Lay this souring of the manufacturing climate at the feet of the Washington politicians, who have allowed uncertainties re: taxes and spending in 2013 (and beyond) to fester.
As a result, we are very close to a recession. (The broad-based NBER indicators in November are almost flat versus July.)
Dr. Ken Mayland
ClearView Economics, LLC