We learned with painful social and economic clarity in the great recession of 2008-2009 that it is demand, and not supply, that drives our economy.

recession

So what are the top 10 demanded U.S. manufactured exports?

  1. Transportation Equipment
  2. Chemicals
  3. Machinery
  4. Computer and Electronic Products
  5. Petroleum and Coal Products
  6. Food
  7. Primary Metal
  8. Medical Equipment, Sporting Goods, and Miscellaneous
  9. Fabricated Metal Products
  10. Electrical Equipment 

(source:  Brookings EXPORT NATION 2012)

Here is what the report had to say about Manufacturing:

“Manufacturing comprised the majority of U.S. exports in 2010. While on a declining trend as a share of U.S. exports, manufacturing has seen a comeback in the first year of recovery. About 61 percent of U.S. exports, manufacturing industries produced three-quarters of the additional U.S. sales abroad between 2009 and 2010. The sector’s sales abroad increased by 14.5 percent and expanded faster than U.S. exports overall. Machinery, transportation equipment, and chemicals delivered one-half of manufacturing exports growth.”

“Manufacturing contributed disproportionately to export recovery in the large metros (metropolitan areas). While manufacturing accounted for 59 percent of the exports sold by industries located in the large metros in 2010, it delivered almost 76 percent of the exports growth in these metros. Midwestern metros illustrated this trend, with 85 percent of their exports growth generated by manufacturing industries.”

“Manufacturing industries delivered the majority of export sales growth in 94 out of the largest 100 metros in 2010.”

Here are the facts on US Manufactured Goods Exports. Where do you fit in?
Here are the facts on US Manufactured Goods Exports. Where do you fit in?

Precision machining companies produce components that are key to functionality of transportation equipment, machinery, computers and electronic products, medical equipment,  and electrical equipment.

Our parts are used to harvest, process, and package food, and to produce and refine petroleum and coal products.

We are a sub-industry of Fabricated Metals- number 9 on the list.

What are USA’s Top 10 Manufactured Exports?

They are all items that would not be exportable if it were not for the role of  our precision machined products.

Why does manufacturing – especially precision machined manufacturing-  matter?

Ask an economist.

Or look at exports.

Recession photo

The December ISM Manufacturing Report is out, and the headline story is good news.

But the full report is a bit of a mixed bag for our industry.

Manufacturing is back in expansion mode as the Purchasing Manager’s Index, “‘The PMI™,’ registered 50.7 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from November’s reading of 49.5 percent, indicating expansion in manufacturing for only the third time in the last seven months. This month’s PMI™ reading moved manufacturing off its low point for 2012 in November.” – ISM Report Dec 2012

ISMDec2012

A closer reading however notes that “The nine industries reporting contraction in December — listed in order — are: Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Chemical Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Plastics & Rubber Products; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; and Apparel, Leather & Allied Products.”ISM Report Dec 2012

Precision machining is an industry of Fabricated Metal Products.  Four of our most important market segments were also in decline in December:  Transportation Equipment; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components. The market we see is not as rosy as the headline.

In addition, the New Orders component of the survey, at 50.3, went unchanged.  This suggests that new orders, the source of our business’s future production, was virtually unchanged in December. The backlog of orders component,  at 48.5,indicates a small contraction of the orders book.

Graph courtesy of Calculated Risk Blog

The PMI™ registered 51.7 percent, an increase of 0.2 percentage point from September’s reading of 51.5 percent, indicating growth in manufacturing at a slightly faster rate.”

Underperforming at best. We have the tools…

“The New Orders Index registered 54.2 percent, an increase of 1.9 percentage points from September, indicating growth in new orders for the second consecutive month.”

Why we’re not exactly ecstatic over October’s 1.9% increase in new orders- Look at  our shipments for the month September…

“The Production Index registered 52.4 percent, an increase of 2.9 percentage points, indicating growth in production following two months of contraction. The Employment Index registered 52.1 percent, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points, and the Prices Index registered 55 percent, reflecting a decrease of 3 percentage points.”

“Comments from the panel this month reflect continued concern over a fragile global economy and soft orders across several manufacturing sectors.” (emphasis mine)

“Order book is really soft,” according to my industry contacts. I won’t say who said “As soft as a pair of fuzzy slippers.”

According to the ISM release, the following manufacturing sectors- listed in order reported declines in October: Primary Metals; Wood Products; Machinery; Fabricated Metal Products; Transportation Equipment; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; and Nonmetallic Mineral Products.

The precision machined products industry is a sub sector of Fabricated Metals, and we directly serve the Machinery, Transportation Equipment, Electrical Equipment, Appliances and Components, Computer and Electronic Products Industries, mentioned as contracting in the ISM report.

Many of the United States’ export markets are currently contracting, with the Eurozone being especially hard hit by declining new orders across the continent. The BEA and US Census reported that goods exports decreased from $130.7 billion to $128.5 billion; goods imports declined as well from $188.5 billion to $187.8 billion. The fragile global economy is slowing trade.

Precison machined products are used in a wide variety of applications and technologies, and contraction in those markets can’t help but be felt by our industry.

You can see the full ISM release here

Calculated Risk Chart

Soft Slippers

11 industries reported expansion in February. The Precision Machined Products Industry, a sub industry of Fabricated Metals, serves 7 of these  industries showing the greatest recovery.
Here are the sectors that reported expansion that precision machining serves:

  1. Machinery; 
  2. Computer & Electronic Products;
  3. Miscellaneous Manufacturing;
  4. Transportation Equipment;
  5. Electrical Equipment;
  6. Appliances & Components;
  7. Fabricated Metal Products;

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in February for the seventh consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 10th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®.
The PMI index for February was 56.5 down 1.9 percentage points from January. Because the PMI is above 50, the manufacturing economy is expanding.

How can they run out of vanilla?

According to ISM  steel, stainless steel, and aluminum are increasing in price.
Anecdotal data from our conversations with members confirms the ISM numbers, and points out that the metals named above are both more expensive and in short supply.
You know business is improving when they are out of plain vanilla.
Photocredit.
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