PMPA / ITR Economics Forecast Report March 2023

 

 

The data shows a number of factors pointing to the likelihood of a broad , economic slowdown. While recession is coming, its arrival time is not yet clear. This report discusses, for the markets that our shops serve, expectations of timelines, severity and recovery for demand for our components. Despite the likelihood of “recession,” the data points to a relatively mild downturn, not a thrill ride.

This ITR report is organized by markets served, so take care to look at the relevant entries for your business, rather than get caught up in an overall pessimism. Focus on selling in markets that do not look as pessimistic, understand and manage the risks- both positive and negative, and take advantage of any production slowdowns to increase the training and skill level of your talented performers.  

This report should give you the managerial confidence to lead, focus on the important, and lean into opportunities while others panic.

 

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The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment. 

PMPA Business Trends December 2022 Year End Review and Summary

For the year, our Business Trends Sales Index  calendar year average came in at 160- up nineteen points over the 2021 calendar year average of 141, an increase of 13.5 percent. While the monthly index for December softened by ten points or 6.8 percent to 137 from November’s  147 value, it marks the first time that this  index came in below 140 for the year. The average for the fourth quarter was 148- showing just how busy our shops have been in this traditionally weakest quarter for sales. This 148 value shows our fourth quarter sales average was seven points or 5 percent higher than the average for the entire 2021 calendar year- despite fourth quarter being our lowest performing period. Sentiment Indicators for first three months of 2023 are encouraging.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends January 2023

 Our shops have had two extraordinarily strong years of sales and production. Our January sales performance  was unexpectedly high- up 13 percent over December  and 12 percent over the five-year average for January. Our indicator outperformed both Industrial Production and New Orders for Manufactured Durable Goods. Sentiment indicators were positive for Lead times, Employment and Profitability.  Our positive sentiment indicators combined with record sales in January suggest optimism going into February 2023.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA 2023 Holiday Time Off Report

 

The 2023 Holiday Time-Off surveys have been compiled and calculated, and the 2023 Holiday Time-Off Reports are attached. Our thanks to the 75 member companies who completed and returned a survey.  Please remember that the results of the survey indicate which 2023 holidays those companies plan to offer their employees off with pay.  It does not indicate which, if any, holidays they may offer off, without pay.

The 2023 Holiday Time-Off Reports will be available for reference throughout the year on the Reports page of the PMPA website.

 

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PMPA Business Trends October 2022

The PMPA October Business Trends Index pivoted toward softening in October, with Sales, Leadtime, and Profitability all to the negative. Sentiment for Employment remained level. While our sales index for October is down 6.4 percent from September, it is the highest ever for the month of October, up 7 percent from the previous high, and up 16 percent from the five-year average for the month of October. Our sales index has not dropped below the calendar year average (141) of 2021 in any month of 2022.

For the year, our index is up 23 points over 2021 calendar year average, an increase of 16 percent. In April, we predicted a “gangbusters year with the calendar year average coming in at 159.” Our year-to-date average of 164 is six points or three percent higher than our April prediction.

As you enjoy the Thanksgiving holiday with your family and loved ones, your business’s high level of sales and performance this year will be an important addition to your Gratitude List.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends September 2022

Level sales in September belie pivot to reduced precision machining activity for 4th Quarter of CY 2022. Level sales remained high- fourth highest level for our indicator ever. Average length of first shift increased by a slight 0.1 of an hour, with no shops responding  that had scheduled less than 40 hours. Outlook for the next three months for Lead Times remained level, while indicators for Sales, Profitability and Employment all continued to decline. The data continue to show a strong year for our precision Machining Industry.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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Minnesota Chapter President’s Round Table

 

Tuesday, April 4, 2023 5:30pm – 7:30pm US/Central          

5:30pm – 7:30pm US/Central
Hotel Crosby
232 Main Street North 
Stillwater, MN 55082

Join us for a special afternoon with John Habe, President of Metal Seal Precision and the 2023 PMPA President. John will share his unique journey in manufacturing and how he has built and grown his machining businesses. Also, learn about the latest news from PMPA and what is coming this year locally and nationally from the association.

5:30 P.M. – Cash Bar
6:00 P.M. – Dinner
6:30 P.M.– President’s Round Table
Cost: $40

 

 

 

PMPA Business Trends August 2022

The PMPA Business Trends Index increased from 154 in July to 173 in August, a gain of 19 points and 12.3 percent. This is our index’s third highest monthly value ever. For the year, our index is up 22 points over 2021 calendar year average, an increase of 15.6 percent. While sentiment indicators suggest softening in the months ahead, our sales index has not dropped below the calendar year average (141) of 2021 in any month of 2022. So, such softening is not unexpected. The combination of all factors discussed in this report makes a persuasive case for an adjustment back toward more typical levels of sales and production in the next three months. The three- and twelve-month moving averages of sales continue to trend upwards on a parallel track.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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