PMPA Business Trends December 2023 Year End Review and Summary

The PMPA Business Trends Sales Index surprised to the upside at 144 for December, with a six point or 4.4% gain over November’s 138. That 144  is up 15 points or 11.6% over the 5-year average for December Sales. Our Sales index  was down just 3.7 percent from our April forecast. Positive sentiment indicators for both Sales and Lead Times make a very strong case for business positivity for the first quarter of 2024.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends November 2023

The PMPA Business Trends Sales Index declined modestly to 138- a 3 point or 2.1 percent decline- from the October value of 141. We believe that our leveling thesis is still valid. Our YTD average of 146 has held for the second consecutive month. This month’s 141 is the third highest level of sales recorded for November by our reporting. It is 4.2 points or 3.1 percent above the five-year average (133.8) for November. Our sentiment indicators remained level, except for Profitability for the next three months which improved by 9 percent over the prior month. A special postscript takes a look at an impressive trend in Labor utilization for our precision machining shops.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends October 2023

The PMPA Business Trends Sales Index remained steady as she goes at 141 for the second consecutive month in October, confirming the leveling trend we suggested was coming. This month’s 141 is the fourth highest level of sales recorded for October by our reporting. The data show leveling and a measured impact resulting from the uncertainty that our shop management is facing with geopolitics, price inflation, gridlock in Washington D.C., difficulty finding skilled workforce, and the UAW strike. The data tells us to remain calm. We are level percent month over month. We are on track for our third best year ever for Sales dollars!

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends September 2023

PMPA’s September Business Trends Report  shows that our industry sales are leveling, and our shops are making rational, measured adjustments to maintain their capabilities and profitability.  Despite all of the uncertainty in our markets, we remain on track for our third best year ever for Sales dollars! Only outlook for Employment prospects softened in September. The data shows PMPA shops are doing a great job of managing in the current environment.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends August 2023

Sales for the Precision Machining Industry rebounded  up 20 points or 16 percent in August, following the typical July – August recovery pattern we see most years. Our rebound dwarfed the 0.4 percent increase in Industrial Production reported by the FED, and we remain on track to reach our year end forecast- indeed we are with in 2 percent as of this month’s report. Sentiment indicators show Sales and Employment remaining level despite the UAW strike, while Lead Times increased. We’ll let you determine why sentiment for Profitability is down- you would not be far wrong if you looked at Washington DC for that. It is easy to allow ourselves to be overwhelmed  by negative news and headlines, but when we put our data in rows and columns, (data from 75 respondents this month) it is telling us that things are still going well for us in precision manufacturing. What does your data tell you?

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends July 2023

The PMPA Business Trends Sales Index declined 27 points or 18 percent to 127 in July 2023. On first look, this appears to be a stunning reversal of fortunes for our shops in July. However, a critical reading of the figures and placing them in context allows us to see this as a somewhat larger than typical June to July “respite” in our operations, and typical for the season. We still appear to be solidly on track for calendar year sales to come in between the calendar year 2021 and 2022 performance.

This outsize move, out of context, appears to be substantial, however, our YTD average is within 2 percent of our forecasted calendar year average, despite the outsized decline in July. We remain positive and optimistic. PMPA’s sentiment indicators are positive for Sales, level for Profitability, and declining for Employment and Lead Times.

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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PMPA Business Trends June 2023

The PMPA June Business Trends Report  shows that precision manufacturing continues to operate at a strong level of activity,  up 3.3 percent from last month and with outlook remaining level for the next three months for sales and profitability. Prospects for employment increased in June, and our shops continue to strongly outperform Macroeconomic indicators such as PMI, Industrial Production, and Manufacturing Output. PMPA’s monthly index at 155 would have been the second highest level ever for our sales had it occurred prior to last year.  Sales are on track year to date to come in squarely between 2021 and 2022 levels of sales. These are the good old days…

 
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.

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