Author: vdurden
Thursday, June 8, 2023 (5pm – 7:30pm US/Eastern)
That’s Italian Ristorante
2 Tall Grass Trail #4
Woodbridge, Ontario L4L3Y9
Canada
We would like to thank everyone for attending the President’s Roundtable. It was a pleasure.
The purpose of our precision machining shops is to manufacture components that provide functionality that is needed by our customers. Knowledge of our craft is important. But knowledge of our craft can be made irrelevant by events and circumstances beyond our control.
This month’s ITR Economic Report will help you intelligently manage risk- and focus on the significant events and circumstances in the broad economy and avoid worrying about the less important noise that is burying our news feeds and consciousness. Only one of the 8 Industry Indicators that we track are currently in a recession phase.
Two industries that are heavily served by our shops are in the accelerating growth phase- more good news, while the remaining five industries that we serve are currently in a slowing growth phase.
We are not yet seeing recession in our markets. ITR does see a recession on the horizon, and in their report explain why it will be relatively mild, and when to expect it in the eight industries segments that we follow. Read the full report to learn the best steps to take to evaluate your market position and intelligently manage the risk of the phases of the business cycle that are ahead.
The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment.
Our shops have had two extraordinarily strong years of sales and production. March sales return to that trend. Our Business Trends Sales Index- at 169 for the month of March- was unexpectedly high. It was the fifth highest level of sales we have ever seen for our Business Trends Sales Index. And it was up 13.7 percent over the five year average for March. Our first quarter sales is accordingly high, just under 4 percent lower than the 2022 full year calendar year average. The demand for the precision machined components produced in our shops remains high. Sentiment for lead time for next three months tells us that backlog is solid. Precision Machined products manufacturing is thriving.
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.
Thursday, May 25, 2023 (5pm – 6:30pm US/Central)
Corey Steel Company
PMPA would like to thank every one who came out. A special thank you to Mike Laughlin and Corey Steel Company for hosting a great event
PMPA would like to thank everyone who came out to support the President’s Roundtable. Also a special thanks to Accurounds, Kinefac and Swissturn/ USA.
Our shops have had two extraordinarily strong years of sales and production. Our February Sales performance is normalizing at high levels for the month and time of year. Sentiment indicators were positive for Sales and Employment, level for Lead times and Profitability. Our hours of first shift scheduled attest to a return to normal in our shops, despite high demand. While the value for February is the second highest value ever for that month, it is a return to the levels we had prior to the stratospheric performance we logged in 2022.
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.
The data shows a number of factors pointing to the likelihood of a broad , economic slowdown. While recession is coming, its arrival time is not yet clear. This report discusses, for the markets that our shops serve, expectations of timelines, severity and recovery for demand for our components. Despite the likelihood of “recession,” the data points to a relatively mild downturn, not a thrill ride.
This ITR report is organized by markets served, so take care to look at the relevant entries for your business, rather than get caught up in an overall pessimism. Focus on selling in markets that do not look as pessimistic, understand and manage the risks- both positive and negative, and take advantage of any production slowdowns to increase the training and skill level of your talented performers.
This report should give you the managerial confidence to lead, focus on the important, and lean into opportunities while others panic.
The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment.
For the year, our Business Trends Sales Index calendar year average came in at 160- up nineteen points over the 2021 calendar year average of 141, an increase of 13.5 percent. While the monthly index for December softened by ten points or 6.8 percent to 137 from November’s 147 value, it marks the first time that this index came in below 140 for the year. The average for the fourth quarter was 148- showing just how busy our shops have been in this traditionally weakest quarter for sales. This 148 value shows our fourth quarter sales average was seven points or 5 percent higher than the average for the entire 2021 calendar year- despite fourth quarter being our lowest performing period. Sentiment Indicators for first three months of 2023 are encouraging.
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.
Our shops have had two extraordinarily strong years of sales and production. Our January sales performance was unexpectedly high- up 13 percent over December and 12 percent over the five-year average for January. Our indicator outperformed both Industrial Production and New Orders for Manufactured Durable Goods. Sentiment indicators were positive for Lead times, Employment and Profitability. Our positive sentiment indicators combined with record sales in January suggest optimism going into February 2023.
If you are not currently participating in PMPA’s Monthly Business Trends reporting, you are missing an excellent peer benchmark and a tool to provide you with confidence for your business decisions. Contact Veronica Durden to sign up.
The 2023 Holiday Time-Off surveys have been compiled and calculated, and the 2023 Holiday Time-Off Reports are attached. Our thanks to the 75 member companies who completed and returned a survey. Please remember that the results of the survey indicate which 2023 holidays those companies plan to offer their employees off with pay. It does not indicate which, if any, holidays they may offer off, without pay.
The 2023 Holiday Time-Off Reports will be available for reference throughout the year on the Reports page of the PMPA website.