Why do the mechanical properties on different shipments of the same size and grade of steel vary so much?
To answer this, lets look at grade 1018, a non-free machining grade that we may encounter in our shops.

We'll pull it until its two pieces!

A cold drawn  1018 steel bar  1″ diameter typically has a Tensile Strength (TS) of 64000 psi.  Yield Strength (YS) of 54,000 psi; %Elongation in 2″  (%EL) of 15%; % Reduction of Area  (%RA) of 40%. (According to  Information Report SAE J 1397,  Estimated Mechanical properties and Machinability of Steel Bars,) Note, these are estimated values, not minimums!
Your mileage (properties)  may vary– here are three reasons why.

  1. The original melt and cast process can affect chemical makeup;
  2. The mechanical properties of cold drawn steel are affected by the amount of cold work;
  3. The final steps of straightening and polishing can relax the steel.

The original melt and cast process can affect chemical makeup. Basic Oxygen Furnace (BOF) steels are made from a high percentage of new metal, and so have lower levels of residual elements from scrap that could strengthen the material. Also BOF steels tend to run lower levels of nitrogen, which is a ferrite strengthener.  So BOF Melt steels tend to be on the low side of mechanical properties like tensile and Yield, and a bit higher ductility (%RA and %Elongation in 2″).
The mechanical properties of cold drawn steel are affected by the amount of cold work. This can come about in two different ways: the first way is as the bar size ordered gets smaller, given a standard draft, the percentage of cold work increases. This increase in the percentage of cold work increases the mechanical properties of Tensile and Yield Strength and can decrease the ductility somewhat.
The second way can be when different vendors use a different “drafting practice” resulting in a different amount of cold work to make the same size. Typical draft may be to use hot roll sized 1/16th” over the final size for drawing. Another vendor may choose 3/32″  oversize, and in rare cases a company my use 1/8″ to assure exceeding, not just  meeting,  minimum Yield Strength.
The final steps of straightening and polishing can relax the steel. The amount of cold work done in straightening the bars can relax the steel because the force is applied transverse to the original drawing. So a supplier using a two roll straightener, all other things being equal, may produce bars with a different final set of properties than one using a train of planishing discs to get the bar commercially straight.
So what values could you expect to encounter in grade 1018 steel when looking at all of these effects?
We’ve seen 3/8″ 1018 with Tensile Strength (TS) in the high 80,000’s; Yield Strength (YS) in the high 70,000’s.%EL in 2″ as high as 26;%RA as high as 65.
And in 4″ rd 1018, TS  as low as 58,000psi; YS of  about 42,000 psi; %EL in 2″ of 12%; % RA of 35%.
The process path generally can explain the properties received.  And why those mechanical properties that you receive are sometimes so far from what you expect.
Photo credit: A-Lab Dayton Ohio
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Guest Post by Jeff Wiltsie, President, Vanamatic Company
The Climate Change Debate  

  • Greenhouse Gases – CO2  
  • Fossil Fuels
  • Deforestation
  • Chemical Fertilizers
  • Urbanization
  • Solar Flares
  • Sun Spots

 
Is Science on the Right Path?
A recent study by researchers at Duke University and the Army Research Office has found new evidence of a link between solar flare activity and the earth’s temperature. 
Solar Flares and Sun Spots
Habibullo Abdusamatov, head of the space research laboratory at the St. Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory, said global warming stems from an increase in the sun’s activity.
Global warming results not from the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, but from an unusually high level of solar radiation and a lengthy – almost throughout the last century – growth in its intensity,”
“Instead of professed global warming, the Earth will be facing a slow decrease in temperatures in 2012-2015. The gradually falling amounts of solar energy, expected to reach their bottom level by 2040, will inevitably lead to a deep freeze around 2055-2060,” he said, adding that this period of global freeze will last some 50 years, after which the temperatures will go up again.
http://en.rian.ru/russia/20070115/59078992.html
The Politics of Climate Change
Following Excerpts from:   Geocraft  
Of the 186 billion tons of carbon from CO2 that enter earth’s atmosphere each year from all sources, only 6 billion tons (3.2%) are from human activity. Approximately 90 billion tons come from biologic activity in earth’s oceans and another 90 billion tons from such sources as volcanoes and decaying land plants.
What do politicians and global warming advocates say?  Is it science or politics?
“In the United States…we have to first convince the American People and the Congress that the climate problem is real.”  President Bill Clinton in a 1997 address to the United Nations 
Nobody is interested in solutions if they don’t think there’s a problem.  Given that starting point, I believe it is appropriate to have an over-representation of factual presentations on how dangerous (global warming) is, as a predicate for opening up the audience to listen to what the solutions are…  Former Vice President Al Gore in an Interview with Grist Magazine May 9, 2006
“We have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we may have. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”  Stephen Schneider (leading advocate of the global warming theory in interview for Discover magazine, Oct 1989)
“Even if the theory of global warming is wrong, we will be doing the right thing — in terms of economic policy and environmental policy.”  Tim Wirth, while U.S. Senator, Colorado.
No matter if the science is all phony; there are collateral environmental benefits…. Climate change [provides] the greatest chance to bring about justice and equality in the world.”
Christine Stewart, former Minister of the Environment of Canada
quote from the Calgary Herald, 1999
160,000 Years of Ice
Except for two brief interglacial episodes, one peaking about 125,000 years ago (Eemian Interglacial), and the other beginning about 18,000 years ago (Present Interglacial), the Earth has been under siege of ice for the last 160,000 years. Graph

Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J. Jouzel et al., Nature vol. 329. pp. 403-408, 1987 and published in EarthQuest, vol. 5, no. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley, Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record

 
Hottest Period in Human History – 4000 Years Ago
The idea that man-made pollution is responsible for global warming is not supported by historical fact. The period known as the Holocene Maximum is a good example– so-named because it was the hottest period in human history. The interesting thing is this period occurred approximately 7500 to 4000 years B.P. (before present)– long before humans invented industrial pollution. Graph
Compiled by R.S. Bradley and J.A. Eddy based on J.T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vo. 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley, Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record

Earth Heating and Cooling Cycles
Periods of Earth warming and cooling occur in cycles. This is well understood, as is the fact that small-scale cycles of about 40 years exist within larger-scale cycles of 400 years, which in turn exist inside still larger scale cycles of 20,000 years, and so on. Graph
Example of regional variations in surface air temperature for the last 1000 years, estimated from a variety of sources, including temperature-sensitive tree growth indices and written records of various kinds, largely from western Europe and eastern North America. Shown are changes in regional temperature in ° C, from the baseline value for 1900. Compiled by R. S. Bradley and J. A. Eddy based on J. T. Houghton et al., Climate Change: The IPCC Assessment, Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, 1990 and published in EarthQuest, vol 5, no 1, 1991. Courtesy of Thomas Crowley, Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record

Adapt to Change Maintains British Scientist Jane Francis
What we are seeing really is just another interglacial phase within our big icehouse climate.”  Dismissing political calls for a global effort to reverse climate change, she said, “It’s really farcical because the climate has been changing constantly… What we should do is be more aware of the fact that it is changing and that we should be ready to adapt to the change.”
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Sometimes, our eyes can help us see what is really going on, no matter what the talking heads in the media try to tell us.
On this first map, a satelite image of the Korean peninsula, the light indicates urban and economic activity as evidenced by electric lights in South Korea. The absence of light at the top of the peninsula indicates an apparent lack of economic and industrial activity in North Korea.

Link: Korean Peninsula
On this map of unemployment rates by county, again darkness indicates lack of economic activity.

Here is the interactive version posted on YouTube:
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J28tLOpzfpA&hl=en_US&fs=1&rel=0]
Click here to see this interactive map show the growth of unemployment by county from Jan 2007 to January 2010.
Sometimes, it’s easier to just show what you mean.
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  1. Continued small lot sizes requiring more time to set up then to run
  2. Inability to find “what used to be easy to find standard (materials, tools, holders, etc.)” (disappearing suppliers and products)
  3. Lack of lead time on jobs; Increase of lead time for needed materials
  4. Increase in rejects  from remaining suppliers to our shops
  5. Too much to worry about, externally
  6. Regulatory uncertainty– HR, EPA, OSHA; approved and banned materials; Increasing local  agency “oversight”
  7. COBRA
  8. Workers Comp
  9. Difficulty to get financing
  10. Inability to break through Voice mail at customers
  11. Uncertainty on pricing for needed materials
  12. Cost of capital to make investments to meet new regulations (cleaning and VOC’s in California, for example)
  13. Customer attitude that says you need to be financially strong before we give you an order;  when everyone is in the same boat.
  14. Desperate competitors who take an order below their cost just to sustain cash flow.

These are not our favorite things.

Julie Andrews won’t be singing about these subjects anytime soon.
Photocredit

Michelle Applebaum is the analyst we follow for steel industry developments.
She has the best handle on the statistics that we care about and a lifetime of experience to help her craft that “handle.”
In her latest piece  for American Metal Market  Ms. Applebaum lists 3 meaningful structural issues to be addressed:
1) Call China a currency manipulator once and for all.
2) Steer clear of trade agreements that turn into legalized rape.
3) Create a government platform where stability – of environmental costs, social costs, and defense against assaults on our trade laws will enable industry to make long term financial commitments.
Michelle led her piece with the following line- I think it is really the perfect closing to this discussion:
“Its absurd- and even arrogant- to expect to be able to export our products into other countries when we can’t even defend our markets at home.”

How 'bout them apples?

How ’bout them apples?
Photocredit.

No.
I’m really more focused on Quality.
On draining the swamp, not swamp beautification.
Quality Assurance.
Organizational Improvement. (People and Processes.)
Lean is just another way of saying eliminate waste.
Six Sigma uses statistical jargon, but how many people in top management can even get close to describing the area under the normal curve at +/- 3 sigma? Or know that a sigma is a standard deviation? And what that means?
Let alone recognize non-normal data?
(“Six Sigma” is just another term for “Magic ” to the guys wearing ties at the OEM’s…)
I’m not into cute names for serious tools. We were using  powerful  statistical techniques before they got new cute  names and became safe  Okay fashionable  to say up in the carpeted front office.

Draining the swamp doesn't need tools with cute names.

However, if you are serious about Quality. Quality Assurance. Organizational Improvement. And Tools You Can Use to drain the swamp, instead of reading crap of unknown provenance from the web,  here’s your reading list:
1) Competing Against Time by Stalk and Hout
2) Toyota Way by Jeffrey Liker.Frankly, if you haven’t already read
3) The Goal, by Eliyahu Goldratt, (get this one first it will give you key insight into how to think about manufacturing.)
4) The Machine That Changed The World by Womack is also worth your time.
Take these tools, and love it.
Excavator photo credit.

Lessons from  the Japanese:  Monozukuri, Quality, Cost Cutting, and the Risk of Recall.

In this case, up is "Not good."

Graphic credit.
Recalls on products sold in Japan (excluding cars, food and drugs) are up more than 80% from three years earlier, according to a Wall Street Journal report credited above.
It’s not just Toyota.
It’s not just Cars.
Is it the relentless pursuit of cost cutting?
Is it the reduction in part count (sku reduction)? As a component is used across many products, increasing scale and  so reducing price per piece,  this also  increases the scope and scale of a recall if the design or manufacture is defective.
It’s not just Japan.
Ford recalls 2007-2010: 15.505  million vehicles according to my analysis of the data here. See our post from October 21 2009 here.
Where was Congress when Ford announced these huge recalls?
GM recalled 1.5 million of its vehicles last year.
Did Congress weigh in? (I mean, besides bailing them out with lots of our tax dollars.)
Why is Congress suddenly calling for hearings?
I think that OEM manufacturers and businessmen  EVERYWHERE, not just in JAPAN, have taken their eyes off the ball of continuous improvement in their manufacturing processes.  They have been distracted by the fleeting flash of lower prices.
Continuous reduction in ‘costs’ is not the same as paying  continuous attention to Quality. And when you take your eye off the Quality ball, it  really shows up when you have a near perfect record.
Cultural footnote: This summer, I spoke with managers at Japanese auto companies who told me that MONOZUKURI is about ‘the existential joys of making things.’  Of ‘implementing a process that realizes a design to product.’  This was a really big deal. It was their long and storied tradition. It’s their national heritage, and they are “sharing it with the world.”
 I’m starting to  think that MONOZUKURI is really more about mercantilist economics and economic nationalism
 And maybe 安価.  Or 失敗.
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The role of Manganese in steel in our precision machining shops.

Manganese ore like this comes from Turkey.

Carbon is a chemical element that is the primary hardening constituent in steel. Manganese is a chemical element that is present in all commercial steels, and contributes substantially to a steel’s strength and hardness, but to a lesser extent than does carbon.

  1. The effectiveness of Manganese in increasing mechanical properties depends on and is proportional to the carbon content of the steel.
  2. Manganese also plays an important role in decreasing the critical cooling rate during hardening. This means that manganese helps to increase the steel’s hardenability. It’s effect on hardenability is greater than that of any of the other commonly used alloying elements.
  3. Manganese is also an active deoxidizer, and is less likely to segregate than other elements.
  4. Manganese improves machinability, by combining with sulfur to form an soft inclusion in the steel that promotes a steady built up edge and a place for the chip to break.
  5. Manganese improves yield  at the steel mill by combining with the sulfur in the steel, minimizing the formation of iron pyrite (iron sulfide) which can cause the steel to crack and tear during high temperature rolling.

Manganese is an important constituent of today’s steels.
Now you know a few reasons why Mn (the abbreviation for Manganese) is the second element shown on the chemical analysis report (right after carbon).
It’s That Important!
Mn Ore Photocredit.
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These past two years have taught us all some valuable lessons. But, we haven’t yet recognized the change that these lessons have brought with them. I found a brilliant description of the change and the lessons laid out in a book. The book is titled Linchpin, written by Seth Godin.

The only MUST READ book for you this year!

Here are three lessons about our new world of work:
Lesson 1: There are fewer and fewer jobs where you can get paid merely for showing up. (Page 23) Instead progressive shops are looking for people who make a difference and they are shedding everyone else.
Lesson 2: If you want a job where you get to do more than follow instructions, don’t be surprised if you get asked to do things they never taught you to do in school.(Page 30) No one today is looking for people who need to be told what to do. Shops that are busy today are desperate to find talented, courageous, competent people who know what to do.
Lesson 3: For nearly three hundred years…factory owners wanted compliant, low paid replaceable workers to run their machines. (Page 7) We just lived through the last two years of management in our  precision machining shops doing everything they could to keep their most talented, dare I say it, most indispensable people on the payroll.
We have come through an incredible change in business and manufacturing in the past two years. The days of business success being assured by having a high Percentage of Easily Replaced Laborers (PERL) is over. (Page 10)  Low cost labor in Asia and former Eastern Bloc countries win that game hands down. The system of show up, do what they tell you, work hard, keep your head down, fit in, try to be average, stick it out, be part of the system, died an ugly death over these past two years. (By the way, it didn’t work so well in junior high either.)
THE SYSTEM HAS CHANGED. You know it as an employee. You know it as an employer. This book  explains the change. And how you (and your organization) can thrive in this new reality.
This is not just a book for managers. This is not just a book for employees. This is not just a book for people who want the latest thinking. This book  will give you, no matter who you are or what  you do, tools you can use to make sense of today’s new world of work, and your essential part in it.
Without you...

You have brilliance in you. Your contribution is valuable. What you create is precious. (In our industry, often it saves lives!) Only you can do what you do. Bring your best with you to work. We’re counting on you! (Page 3)
  
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