We just completed our 2013 Business Forecast Report, a compilation of markets served by our industry as measured by  percent of supplier dollars, and shipments versus forecast for the past couple of years. A  forecast consolidating all respondents’ input on a market by market basis. And a look at markets served by size of shop.

I can’t share that, but I can share the latest data on the size of the precision machining industry from the US Census 2010 Annual Survey of Manufactures.

Medical Devices was an important served by the Precision Machining Industry in 2012.
Medical Devices was an important served by the Precision Machining Industry in 2012.

NAICS 332721 Industry Statistics:

Companies (2009 data) 3,198

Employees 78,070

Dollar Value of Shipments $13,314,415,000

Average Sales Per Employee $170,545

Source:  U.S. Census 2010 Annual Survey of Manufactures  (except as noted)

About the Precision Machining Industry:

The Precision Machined Products Industry consists of a diversified manufacturing base producing highly engineered components to customer specifications using a variety of materials such as: steel, stainless steel, aluminum, brass, and aerospace alloys. Utilizing the latest technology, including CNC turning and milling centers, rotary transfer machines, CNC and automatic screw machines, these companies produce complex parts and complete assemblies for finished goods such as: automobiles, aircraft, heavy truck, medical devices, appliances, construction equipment and much more. The industry is best described statistically under NAICS 332721.

Here is a surprising fact that I can share from our survey that will make you scratch your head too: The second largest market served by our industry was All Other

The fact is that there continue to be jobs available for people with skills who can add value in our advanced manufacturing precision machining shops. Our companies are constantly trying to solve their problem of lack of  skilled operators.

Today's high tech high precision CNC machines assure a skilled craftsman a great career!
Today’s high tech high precision CNC machines assure a skilled craftsman a great career!

Never mind the reports about high unemployment rate. Think twice before committing years of your life and many thousands in debt for a college degree that may not deliver any employment ROI.

How can YOU get a job in precision machining?

1) Master your high school math. Machine operators work with decimal fractions to 4 or more places in both English units and metric.  Algebra, geometry and rigonometry are used regularly, they are fundamental to understanding our processes. If you can do high school math you have a foundation for a career in precision machining.

2) Get an entry level credential. Community colleges across the country offer one year training programs that result in a CNC operator certificate, Quality Control Technician certificate, or the like.

3) Visit precision machining shops in your area. Look at the technology that is employed. Ask about the high tech products that they produce. Ask them to explain how they measure and check the parts.

4) Ask your friends who have recently graduated from college how their job search is going. The majority of recent college graduates are either unemployed or underemployed in a position that does not require nor compensate them for the degree nor their time and money invested.

5) Get more information off the PMPA’s website. Our Career Tab is a great place to start. Our Training Database will help you identify training resources in your local area. Right Skills Now will help you understand the opportunity and need for machininsts. NIMS credentials are the Gold Standard for our industry.

With the certainty of employment costs increasing due to the Affordable Health Care Act, with the pressures to minimize staffing to control those costs, and the ever present need to remain competitive, companies still need to solve their “skilled operator problem.”  If you have a credential that says that you have skills, our shops will be happy to take a look at what you have to offer. The resources above will help you get that credential.

In the words of PMPA’s economics advisor, Dr. Ken Mayland, “The factory sector wants to grow.  Orders were better (57.8, up 4.5 points), production was better (57.6, up 4.0 points), and the order backlog was better (55.5, up 7.5 points).  The U.S. economy may be the best performing of the major economies of the world.”

Graph via calculated risk blog
Graph via calculated risk blog

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its summary Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased 1.1 points, for a February reading of 54.2.  According to the ISM, a reading above 50 would typically be associated with an expansion of the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, based on the ISM’s estimates, if the current reading of 54.2 were sustained, it would tend to be consistent with 3.7% real GDP growth (annualized).

Our inferences:

  • Manufacturing remains a growing sector of the U.S. and world economies
  • The ISM employment index was weakest of any of the ISM indicators tracked,  at 52.6%, down 1.4% from 54.0%.
  • With Affordable Health Care Act clearly on the minds of employers, adding employees has to be the least preferred outcome until we can see costs more clearly.
  • The Prices sub-index rose 5 points to 61.5. Can price increases and inflation be all that far away?

One respondent in the Miscellaneous Manufacturing sector is quoted by ISM, “Starting to pick up after a slower than normal year-end.”

That is certainly in agreement with PMPA’s Business Trends Report for January 2013 which showed a record rise of 41% over December 2012 sales levels, which were quite low.

ISM February 2013

Calculated Risk Blog

Deborah Keegan on IndustryWeek Manufacturing Network on LinkedIn asked  “What is the one thing you need young workers who are joining your workforce this summer to know in order to be safe?”

See the discussion here.

How many of you would answer-

  • “Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)?”
  • “Safety Rules”
  • “Machine Guarding?”
  • “Safety Training?”
  • “OSHA?”
  • “My boss?”

What is your answer?

What really keeps you safe?
What really keeps you safe?

Time’s up!

I am passionate about safety, so of course I had to put my two cents in…

What keeps you safe is the knowledge that ” ‘you are nothing more than a plastic bag filled with water and everything around you is harder, stronger and more powerful. Your safety depends on your understanding that you are the most vulnerable of everything in our shop environment.’ I started in the steel mill blast furnace department in high school surrounded by rail trains,  mobile equipment, hot metal,  noxious fumes, overhead cranes, and high powered equipment. My buddies who thought they were strong and powerful all had injuries at one time or another. My attitude of being the most vulnerable kept me in one piece.”

What keeps YOU safe?

If “Knowledge of how vulnerable you are” and an “Attitude of being vulnerable to all the hazards in your area” aren’t your answers, Maybe you should take a moment to think about what is really keeping you safe. Or not.

Thanks to Deborah Keegan for starting a great discussion. Check it out on Industry Week Manufacturing Network on LinkedIn

Photocredit: Somalian Body Armor

The time to catch an obsolete specification is during contract review, before there are commitmemnts to material and or sunk costs of material, production and inspection.

Not to mention the cost of scrapping out the production and starting a “Do Over.”

If you get iot right the first time, you don't need a "Do Over."
If you get it right the first time, you don’t need a “Do Over.”

There were over 19,116 cancelled or superceded specifications, commercial item descriptions and standards when I first prepared my list of Obsolete Federal Specifications for cold finished steel in 2004.

These specifications, standards and descriptions often specify mandatory product attributes. Sometimes the replacement standard or specification contain different product requirements.

If you placed your order to the obsolete specification, and the material is in fact delivered to the applicable requirements of the superceding specification, the failure to achieve certain attributes or properties may require a “do over” with new material ordered and a second production campaign. Or a painful engineering change/ waiver from your customer.

It is essential that someone on your team be the standard and specification expert, so you can avoid the waste and stress and expens of a needless “do over.”
Here is my list of obsolete specs that I continue to encounter in the steel bar business :

  • QQ-S-624 Steel Bar Alloy Hot Rolled and Cold Finished General Purpose
  • QQ-S-630A Steel Bar Carbon Hot Rolled Merchant Quality
  • QQ-S-631A Steel Bar Carbon Hot Rolled Special Quality
  • QQ-S-633 Steel Bars Carbon Cold Finish and Hot Rolled General Purpose
  • QQ-S-634 Steel Bars Carbon Cold Finish Standard Quality
  • QQ-S-637 Steel Bar Carbon Cold Finish Standard Quality
  • QQ-S-764 Steel Bar Corrosion Resisting Free Machining

See details for obsolescence dates and replacement specifactions for these in the chart below.

ASTM A 331-95 was cancelled on June 1, 2004. Its requirements were rolled into ASTM A 108. ASTM A331 had been the replacement for QQ-S-624.

obsolete specs copy

To read my original Production Machining  Magazine Article on Obsolete Federal Specifications click here. It contains a couple of links to some helpful sites that may help you determine a specification’s status.

Of course PMPA members have access to their own standard and specification experts through PMPA listserves and staff. A request for an assist always results in a prompt response from the appropriate supplier expert or an answer from PMPA Staff. Where do you go for an assist when wierd, strange, and unusual specifications appear in a quote package?

Do over

As shop owners, we tend to think of OSHA as meaning “Enforcement.”
At PMPA’s Management Update Meeting in Arizona last week, Director Michaels reminded us that OSHA also provides Free On-site Safety and Health  Consultation Services for Small Business.

"OSHA provides free and confidential safety and health advice to small and medium sized businesses committed to improving workplace safety and health."
“OSHA provides free and confidential safety and health advice to small and medium sized businesses committed to improving workplace safety and health.”

A consultation visit is a voluntary activity conducted at the request of an employer.

The employer’s only obligation is to correct any “serious,” unsafe or unhealthful working conditions discovered by the consultant within a reasonable timeframe.

Consultants will NOT issue citations or propose penalties for violations of OSHA standards. 

6 Reasons for you to consider a voluntary consultation

  • Reduce worker injury and illness rates;
  • Decrease workmen’s compensation costs;
  • Improve employee morale;
  • Increase productivity;
  • Recognize and remove workplace hazards;
  • Improve safety and health management systems.

Director Michaels assured our members that “On-site consultation services are separate from our enforcement activities. Last year we did about 30,000 on-site consultations at the request of small businesses looking to improve their company’s safety and health performance. These on-site consultations are paid for out of the OSHA budget, and are one of the tools in our mix to improve the safety and health of all workers in the U.S.”

We personally know of several PMPA members who have used this service and they are leaders in both safety and operational performance.

Link to brochure on the OSHA On-site Consultation Service

Have you used this OSHA consultation service? What was your experience? What advice would you give to other shop owners?

This technology could be the embodiment of our industry’s real vision of a “Paperless Shop.”

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1uyQZNg2vE]

No mention of what you’ll have to pay to stop the annoying pop-up adds that are likely to be  delivered via this device.

But more to the point, we could see this as being a great way to access part details from prints while looking at the part on the machine during production or in the shop.

The glasses could recognize part features and then call up the appropriate details and inspection criteria wirelessly and in real time.

These glasses could help facilitate and assure quality checks and compliance to specifications.

And be used to document procedures and work instructions.

How could you see these glasses being used to make a difference in your operations? 

Link from Gizmodo

Right out the of the gate the PMPA Business Trends Index shows a 46% gain over December shipments, the highest percentage increase for a January to December.

PMPA’s Business Trends Index of Shipments for January 2013 streaked to 127, the highest January ever, and up 46% over December 2012’s 87.

This bodes well ffor a strong year for precision machining in 2013.

Best January over December Increase in shipments...
Best January over December increase in shipments…

My biggest fear is that shops in our industry will continue to manage as if it were 2009 and not be ready to take advantage of the upside opportunities that we are already seeing in 2013.

PMPA invited Assistant Secretary of Labor, OSHA Director David Michaels, PhD, MPH to speak to attendees at our Management Update Conference held last week in Glendale, Arizona.

"OSHA levels the playing field for responsible employers competing with those who cut corners on safety."
“OSHA levels the playing field for responsible employers competing with those who cut corners on safety.”

PMPA member companies, and OSHA, share a committment to worker safety, reducing hazards, and operating safe workplaces.

So we thought that it would be good to hear from OSHA first hand about their programs and approach to their job, since the view from  us in the regulated community  seems to be one quite focused on adversarial enforcement.

Here are a half a dozen thoughts shared by Director Michaels on OSHA and its role.

  • “Given (very) limited resources, OSHA’s challenge is to apply the most efficient mix in order to maximize the abatement of hazards and therefore the prevention of injuries, illnesses, and fatalities.”
  • “OSHA provides training resources in multiple languages to aid employers in training employees in all occupations  so that they can safely perform their jobs.”
  • “It always makes us laugh when we are asked ‘How many OSHA standards have you issued this month?’ We issue about one standard a year, and have for the last four years. Last year we issued one on the Globally Harmonized System. However, our standards have an impact. Our standards save lives.”
  • “We just issued our new GHS- Globally Harmonized Standard- for communicating hazards in materials you get. This will assure that the cmmunications and information that you get on the possible hazards that these materials may present  is much better than what you have been getting. They use pictograms so workers can see immediately the type of hazard without reading.”
  • “OSHA is not just an enforcement agency. We provide many resources for compliance assistance. In 2011, we had 200 million visitors to our website, over 200,000 responses to OSHA 1-800 for help, replied to over 33,000 emails for assistance, conducted 5,300 outreach activities regionally and in our area offices. We performed about 27,000 small business consultations in 2012. Our  budget for consultation  assistance programs increased $3.2 million over 2011 budget.”
  • “In the last full year of the previous administration, OSHA did 39,324 inspections; in 2012, we did 40,961. We get about 40,000 inspections per year. What we try to do is to get our inspections targeted, to do everything that we can to make those 40,000 inspections useful. We try to assure the effectiveness of our enforcement efforts.”

Having the regulated community (that’s us) see the fines and press releases and press coverage of OSHA enforcement is one way that OSHA can leverage its limited staff and resources to promote safety in all industries and shops, not just the ones they visit. OSHA has certainly been successful on that account!

Dr. Michaels’ visit to the PMPA Management update meeting helped me, and our attendees, get a bit of understanding, a bit of empathy, of what the challenge must look like for OSHA. I recall a line from To Kill A Mockingbird:

“You never really know a man until you understand things from his point of view, until you climb into his skin and walk around in it.”

PMPA thanks Dr. Michaels for taking the time to address us and our concerns about  the perceived enforcement focus.

ITR Economist Brian Beaulieu gave a very informative economic outlook for the attendees at PMPA’s Manaement Update Conference in Glendale Arizona last week.
We saw lots of charts and correlations that helped our members make sense of all the conflicting ‘news’ and economic indicators that are our constant distraction.

But I can share with you the one graph that should give you the confidence to find your career in advanced manufacturing (like our precision machining industry) rather than go headlong into debt for a college degree that may not have a positive return on investment.

US Manufacturing as a percentage of GDP (Value Added) (3 Month Moving Average)

The trend for US manufacturing remains positive and significant.
The trend for US manufacturing remains positive and significant.

This graph documents recent history, going forward we see manufacturing jobs returning to North America as energy prices for the rest of the world increase.

We see energy access and prices improving for U.S. Manufacturers as a result of the shale gas boom.

We know personally, despite the uncertainty in the market, that many shop owners are trying to add talent, so they can continue to sustain their levels of production and customer service.

If going deep into debt for a degree with no return on investment is something that you are determined to do, good luck with that.

If however, you could consider the idea of learning and earning as you go, I can heartily recommend getting a start in precision machining via a local community college.

It has been our experience that you will have a job before you complete a one year operator program, and the balance of your training and education will be sponsored in whole or part by your employer.

54% of recent college graduates are unemployed or underemployed.

Career info on Precision Machining.

PMPA Training and Education Database