The REAL Inflation Rate? Alternative Measures Tell Different Story

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What is the REAL inflation rate?
Guest post by Dr. Ken Mayland, ClearView Economics LLC

When we look at things that we actually buy, we get a different look at inflation…

Measured inflation (the blue line) is quite low despite rampant money creation. But is inflation being realistically measured?
Perhaps the price of a McDonald’s Big Mac (the red line) would be a good price indicator. A Big Mac incorporates wages, several commodities, rent, utilities, and transportation costs. It costs have risen much faster than the official inflation rate.
Likewise, the PNC Christmas Price Index, (the green line) which costs out the items in the “12 Days of Christmas,” encompasses several different types of labor and commodity costs. Again, those costs have increased considerably faster than the CPI (and interestingly, almost in line with the Big Mac Index).
If inflation is under-measured, then the “true” costs of living are being low-balled and our well -being is overstated.
Speaking of Precision: Which any one on a fixed income can tell you is happening.
This is what we see when we go to purchase an item at the store for the same price, but get less product.

Growing The Skilled Workforce-Regional Mini- Technical Conference

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PMPA recently brought training for machinists to Southern California to help increase the proficiency and understanding of our member companies’ talented workforce.
Sandvik Coromant Cypress, California Productivity Center hosted the event and provided shop floor demonstrations to over 37 people from 11 companies.

Shop skills are best learned in the shop.

The effects of changing speed, feed and insert gave attendees a new way to understand what their process is telling them by the chips produced.

Corey Steel Bob Drab compared machining characteristics of carbon and alloy steels with stainless steels — Corey Steel expert Bob Drab compared machining characteristics of carbon and alloy steels with stainless steels

Machining Application Engineer Grant Hughson discusses Sandvik Coromant Swiss tooling options with attendees

Program Committee Chair Robin Rutschilling leads a job planning discussion to help understand the decisions needed to determine best way to make a part.

All attendees received CEU credit for their participation, in addition to the new tools and understanding that they will take back to their shop.

OSHA Adds New Chapter On NOISE to Technical Manual

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Informed is prepared.
OSHA just added and published a new chapter addressing noise to the OSHA Technical Manual.
This new chapter provides technical information and guidance to help Compliance Safety and Health Officers (CSHOs) evaluate Noise hazards in the workplace.
The content is based on currently available research publications, OSHA standards, and consensus standards.

The chapter is divided into six main sections.

Introduction and background information about noise and noise regulations and an overview of noise controls.
Worksite noise evaluations, including noise measurement equipment, noise evaluation procedures, and noise sampling.
Investigative guidelines (including methods for planning the investigation) and outlines a strategy for conducting noise evaluations.
Noise hazard abatement and control, including engineering and administrative controls, hearing protection, noise conservation programs, cost comparisons between noise hazard abatement options, and case studies.
References used to produce this chapter and resources for obtaining additional information.
Appendices provide a glossary of terms, sample calculations, and expanded discussion of certain topics introduced in the chapter.

What your sound levels mean... — What your sound levels mean…

We made links available to the OSHA Field Technical Manual PDF in March of 2012 at our blog here.
You might also want to grab a copy of the OSHA Employers Rights And Responsibilities Handbook that we posted about here in October 2011.
New Noise Chapter PDF (updated broken link at 9:38 am Thursday 14 Nov 2013)
Web link to text and links
OSHA Inspection Fact Sheet
PMPA takes our responsibility to help our members intelligently manage the risks of regulation burden.
How do YOU stay on top of all of the new regulations emerging from Washington D.C. regulators these days?

"Earn While You Learn" Or "Borrow Today, Pay Back Tomorrow?"

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The Akron Beacon Journal front page story Sunday was titled More and More, Students Having Trouble Paying Back Their College Loans.
A few quick takeaways-

Borrowing over $100,000 to get psychology degrees did not create sufficient ROI to cover $900/month loans payment for one student, whose work using her degrees is paying near minimum wage;
Nationwide, 14.7 percent of borrowers defaulted on their federal student loans in their first three years of repayment;
Nationwide, students at for-profit colleges have the most trouble repaying their loans, with almost 22 percent not making payments for at least 270 days in the last three-year snapshot;
According to a new study by the University of Kansas, adults with student debt tend to show lower college graduation rates, delays in marriage and buying cars and homes, and lower net worth than those without debt.
According to a spokesperson from the Institute of Student Access and Success: “The loan is supposed to enable them to get an education to get a job and pay back the loan, when you see high default rates, you know something in that string of logic has broken down.”

Indeed.

Critical thinking is recognizing and challenging assumptions.
The assumption is that having a college degree, any college degree, will guarantee the graduate a well paying job able to pay off the student loan indebtedness.
For almost 15 percent of borrowers nationwide, this is NOT the case.
We strongly recommend college education if your plan assures that you will earn a sufficient return on your college investment to allow you to repay the cost of college.
In the current economy, frankly, that is often NOT the case.
We urge you to look at college affordability and loan repayment terms up front- and make a decision- do you want to start your life in significant debt?
There is an alternative.

While many college graduates are unable to find work that pays enough to allow them to pay back their student loans, getting a job in precision machining will enable you to earn while you learn, and avoid the huge student loan debt trap.
Many employers will provide tuition assistance.
The outlook for employment in our industry has remained above 90% (Very Positive) all year. CEO’s I speak with are always looking to find talented people.

Many of our industry’s top process engineers, managers, buyers and quality control personnel started in operations and built their education as they built their career.
So you now have a choice- borrow loads of money today and hope that you can pay it back tomorrow. Or earn while you learn and build a career as you build an educational pathway to success without huge loans.
We’re really a fan of education of all kinds. We’re just not a fan of big debt.
Precision Machining Career Info
PMPA Comprehensive Career Education Database
Right Skills Now
Student Debt Chart

Training- What If I Train Them and They Leave?

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What if…
SOTP
Welding

Three Leading Causes of Industrial Accidents and Injuries

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In my experience these are the three prime causes for accidents and injuries in our manufacturing plants.

Failure to wear personal protective equipment.
Unauthorized use of tools, machinery or vehicles.
Failure to lockout/tagout when performing non routine work on equipment.

While it is personal responsibility to wear personal protective equipment, use only tools and equipment for which one has been trained and authorized, and to avoid hazards by not performing work on operating equipment, it is nevertheless management’s responsibility to assure that workers comply.
What have you done this week to make certain that your employees know that they are accountable for their personal safety?
Forklift Demotivational Poster from Motifake

OSHA GHS HAZCOM Training Materials- Free!

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The first implementation phase of the updated Hazcom standard is Dec. 1, 2013.

December 1, 2013 is deadline for training to the new GHS HAZCOM Standard

This is the date by which employers must train workers on the new label
elements and safety data sheet format. Here are links to free OSHA Training Resources
Hazard Communication Wallet Card
Downloadable Pictograms
December 1, 2013 Training Requirements Fact Sheet
OSHA Brief on Labels and Pictograms
Downloadable OSHA HAZCOM Powerpoint
HCS/ HAZCOM Final Rule

Full PPE Carving Pumpkins At The Office Party

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PPE is important any time one is working with tools.

It’s supposed to be a VW microbus with the PMPA logo…

Actually, the thought of wearing safety equipment helped me get into a safety mindset- I’m not just in the office.

I have sharp tools, wet hands, slippery workpieces and – you know, that sounds a lot like the hazards we face in our shops every day. Sharp tools . Wet Hands. Slippery work pieces.

PPE. It helps you protect yourself.

Happy Halloween.

Aaron Bagshaw Named To Miller Center Skilled Workforce Commission

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When you are president of the oldest company in its manufacturing field in America, you probably have a pretty good handle on what it takes to sustain a business.

Aaron Bagshaw (back row, Left0 and other members of the Commission at The University of Virginia Miller Center. — Aaron Bagshaw (back row, Left) and other members of the Commission at the University of Virginia Miller Center.

“It’s no longer about recognizing that we have a problem- it’s about finding ways to scale what works.”- Aaron Bagshaw
So we were not surprised to learn that Aaron, President of PMPA Member W.H.Bagshaw Co. Inc. was named to the University of Virginia’s Miller Center Workforce Commission addressing the nation’s “Middle Skills” workforce gap. W.H. Bagshaw was established in 1870, making it America’s oldest manufacturer of pins.
Former Governor Haley Barbour (R-MS) and former Governor and Senator Evan Bayh (D-IN) are co-chairing a new University of Virginia Miller Center commission that is focusing on job creation for small- and medium-sized manufacturers. The effort is part of the Milstein Symposium: Ideas for a New American Century, a new Miller Center initiative that is addressing challenges facing America’s middle class.
“For generations, small- and medium-sized manufacturers have provided stable, good-paying jobs for middle-class Americans,” said Bayh. “As we move rapidly into the 21st-century global economy, we need fresh thinking to ensure that these companies can continue to grow and put people to work.”
Barbour said, “The public has understandably lost confidence in Washington’s ability to generate common-sense, bipartisan solutions to our nation’s challenges. This commission will bring together policymakers, scholars, industry leaders and other stakeholders to craft those solutions – the type of people that can achieve broad consensus and develop actionable ideas, not just more rhetoric.”
Barbour and Bayh have strong histories in advancing new ideas to benefit manufacturing and small business. As governor, Barbour expanded the number of high-skilled jobs in Mississippi’s manufacturing sector and helped launch the University of Mississippi’s Center for Manufacturing Excellence. In the Senate, Bayh was active on the Small Business and Entrepreneurship Committee and introduced legislation to expand Small Business Administration loans to small manufacturers, which was enacted a year later.
The commission is expected to release recommendations in February.
Do you have ideas to share?- contact Aaron Bagshaw- just one of a host of your fellow PMPA members that are actively addressing the skills gap issue locally around the country.
Thanks for your leadership Aaron.

Contingency Plans- PMPA Support

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About a year ago, Hurricane Sandy forever changed many lives and destroyed businesses on the East Coast.

What is your contingency plan when it is no longer business as usual?

QS9000 requires suppliers to have contingency plans

Sometimes, natural disasters and acts of God are also in play.
PMPA offers it members operational assurance through our Disaster Recovery Plan

90 PMPA members stepped up to offer Operational Assurance.

PMPA member companies stepped up during last years Sandy Hurricane to offer their capabilities and open time to shops affected by the Superstorm and its consequences.
Over 90 member companies contacted PMPA staff as part of PMPA’s Disaster Recovery Plan
Offers from “recovery shops” (shops volunteering to provide assistance) included loan of tools, gages, material, and offers to run jobs while “requesting shops” dug out from the storm.
Is your shop QS 9000 registered? Do you have a documented contingency plan?
PMPA member shops do. And a list of 90+ fellow shops who have volunteered aid and assistance in the past if needed.
We hope that the only time you need to access the PMPA Disaster Recovery Plan is to pass a QS 9000 audit.
But as a PMPA member, our shops know that if they should have a need, we have a plan backed by member shops like theirs waiting to make a difference.
For information regarding PMPA Disaster Recovery Plan, contact Jeff Remaley gro.apmp@yelamerj here at PMPA .
NY Post Photo
QS 9000 link