PMPA Business Trends April 2019

“Sales Index 2019 YTD – Very Strong Forward Sentiment”

With 81 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for April 2019 came in at 136, up 3 points (2.26%) from April 2018’s value of 133. This is our Index’s highest value recorded for April, making April 2019 our 5th highest month ever recorded. At 136, the April index is up 11.2 points or 9.0% over the 5-year average of 124.8 for the April Sales Index. Our year to date average is 140, up 6 points or 4.5% over 2018’s year-end average of 134. We are at 102% of where we were a year ago in April. See the Special Note at the end of this report.

PMPA Business Trends March 2019

“March 2019- Back to the Future! Another Sales Record- Following the Pattern”

With 81 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for March 2019 came in at 147, (That is not a typo!) up 14 points-10.5%- over February 2019’s 133, and a new high for our index! The March value is up 8.8% over the five year average for the March BT Sales index! This 147 is a new record for the March sales index, as well as a record high for our Business Trends Index for all time. (Please see end notes for our comments on last March‘s Business trends.)

PMPA Business Trends February 2019

“February 2019 Another Sales Record- Positive 3 Months Ahead”

With 81 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for February 2019 came in at 134, up 5 points over February 2018’s 129, down 8 points from January 2019’s 142. The February 2019 value is up 10% over the five-year average for the February BT Sales index! This 134 is a new record for February sales index, just as January’s 142 value was last month. Precision Machining is off to a GREAT start in 2019!

PMPA Business Trends January 2019

“January Sales Record- Positive 3 Months Ahead”

With 84 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for January 2019 jumped to 142, up 15% over December 2018, and up 5% over January 2018. This is virtually an identical repeat of last January’s performance. The January 2019 value is up 13% over the five-year average for the January BT Sales index! This 142 is a new record for January sales index, just as last January’s 135 value was in 2018.

(Procedural note; 22 of our 84 respondents reported sales increase greater than 50% ; 5 of those reported greater than 100% increases in January compared to December. We confirmed the reported values with each of these shops, and only one had been incorrectly reported. We have verified the performance reported.)

PMPA Business Trends November 2018

“2018-On Track to a Strong Finish”

With 80 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for November 2018 declined 11 points to 130,
which was an all-time high for the month of November! Shops reporting sales declines outnumbered those reporting
gains by a ratio of 4:1 not at all unexpected considering the seasonality of shipments this time of year. The Business Trends
Sales Index remains on track to close the year up 8% over 2017. Outlook- despite the seasonality, respondents’ sentiment for Sales in the next three months increased in November, while Lead Times remained steady.

The five-year average for November is 114.6, making this November reading 13% higher than the five-year average for
November sales. Our year to date average is 135, up 10 points or 8.0% over 2017’s year-end average of 125. How does your
shop’s sales compare?

PMPA Business Trends October 2018

“Unbelievable- But Verified!

With 81 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for October 2018 increased to 152, an all-time high! Several companies notified us proactively that “You are not going to believe how high our sales are this month, ” when they reported. Seventy-one of eighty-one reported sales up- fifty- seven of those up double digits! We reviewed each entry and made follow up calls on those showing very high double digits increases. No miss-reported figures and no typos. We did a final confirmation sample of over 10% of respondents. The Sales Index for October at 152 is based on valid data. Reality check- despite the strong October sales, respondents’ sentiment for Sales and Lead time for the next three months is lower, recognizing the seasonal factors of our industry sales. For the first time this year, our sales outlook shows no growth. Our Sales index is 117% of its value one year ago. The five-year average for October is 125.8, making this October reading 20.8% higher than the five-year average for October’s index. Our year to date average is 137, up 12 points or 9.6%
over 2017’s year-end average of 125. How does your shop’s sales compare?

PMPA Business Trends September 2018

“Strong September Sales- Strong 3Q for Industry Shops”

With 83 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for September 2018 declined 7.7 percent from August’s record high of 143 to 132. Our Sales index is 106% of its value one year ago. This is the first time on record that we have recorded such a high September- The five-year average for September is 119.6, making this September reading 10.4% higher than the five-year average for September’s index. Demand has been strong for our precision machined products. Our year to date average is 135, up 10 points or 8% over 2017’s year-end average of 125. We are at 107% year to date.