Author: Joe Jackson
The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment.
Business Trends Sales Index -Still Positive for the Year
“No denying seasonal effects on shipments of our products.”
Tis the Season- but not for shipping components! With 80 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for November came in at 123, down 12 points (8.8%) from October, and down 7 points (5.4%) from November of 2018. The Index average for the year is 135, up 1 point or 0.7% from last year’s 134. Despite the low value, November’s index is up 6 points or 5.1% from the five-year average for November. The 3-month moving average of this sales index is clearly moving away from the 12-month moving average- welcome to Q4 seasonality. Bottom line- not as bad as it could be- essentially even with last year
Business Trends Sales Index Remains Positive Year to Date
Upbeat! With 82 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for October came in at 135, up 3 points or 2.7 percent above September. The index is 100% of last year year-to-date. October’s index is up 6 points or 4.7 percent of this year’s low in June, and up 7.4 points or 5.8% over the five-year average for October. The 3-month moving average of this sales index at 133.7 is climbing towards the 12-month moving average- indicating a return to growth of Sales in our industry. Our year to date average remains at 136, up 2 points or 1.5 percent over 2018’s year-end average of 134.
“We find it interesting that September 2019 came in even with September 2018- despite the UAW strike against GM (Automotive is our
largest market served) and continued production weakness at Boeing.”
With 80 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for September came in at 132, identical to last September, and up 9 points or 7.3 percent above the 5-year average for September. The index is 101% of last year year-to-date. September’s index is up 3 points or 2.3 percent of this year’s low in June. The 3-month moving average of this sales index has levelled as it continues below the 12-month moving average- indicating that the pace of growth in our industry has slowed. We’ll take slowing growth that is 7.3 percent above the prior five years’ average sales for September! Our year to date average is now 136, up 2 points or 1.5 percent over 2018’s year-end average of 134
The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment.
“Business Trends Sales Index Up Over Last Month and August 5Year Average- Down Compared to August 2018”
With 84 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for August 2019 continued its rise, at 134, up 2 points or 1.5 percent over last month, up five points or 3.8 percent over June-this year’s low- and up 5 points or 4 percent over the five year average for the index in August. This 134 value is down 9 points or 6.3 percent compared to August 2018, which was tied for highest monthly value in 2018. There were only three months prior to calendar year 2018 where a monthly value came in above 134- March 2105 and 2017, June of 2017. This August value is right at the calendar year average for last year- not a bad spot to be. The 3-month moving average of this sales index continues below the 12-month moving average- indicating that the pace of growth in our industry has slowed. We’ll take slowing growth that is 4% above the prior five years’ average sales for August! Our year to date average remains at 137, up 3 points or 2.3% over 2018’s year-end average of 134. Our sales are up 1 percent year to date.
“Mixed Signals- Sales Index & Sentiment Recover, but Moving Averages Show Growth Slowing”
With 80 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for July 2019 recovered up 3 points or 2.3 percent
to 132. This 132 value is the second lowest for the year, but needs to be recognized as a high value of its own right- there
were only 4 times where values higher than 132 occurred prior to 2018. The Index average for the month of July for the
prior five years was 117.4 – making July 2019’s 132 a 12.4 percent increase over the average for the last five July’s. We do
not want to overstate our optimism- the 3-month moving average of this sales index has dipped below the 12-month moving
average- indicating that the pace of growth in our industry has slowed. If slowing growth today means 12% above the prior
five years’ average sales for July, we’ll take it. Our year to date average is 137, up 3 points or 2.3% over 2018’s year-end
average of 134. July 2019 is at 104 percent of July 2018 Sales. Our sales are up 2 percent year to date
“Sales Index Declines to Five-Year Average in June 2019!”
With 78 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for June 2019 declined 11 points or (7.8%) to 129. This 129 value happens to be the actual Average for June for the immediate five years prior, from 2014-2018. Obviously much can be made of such a substantial decline, but when one considers that we have been having such outsized performance the prior five months of the year, reverting to the mean doesn’t seem at all that bad. Our year to date average is 138, up 4 points or 3% over 2018’s year-end average of 134. June 2019 is at 93% of June 2018 Sales. We are up 1% year to date.
The Institute for Trend Research (ITR) quarterly reports focus on major areas of economic growth and decline in key market segments for the Precision Machined Products Industry. They are provided to PMPA members as part of the association’s overall business intelligence program and are used as a management tool to help PMPA members plan for what lies ahead and which markets they should focus on in a complex manufacturing environment.
“Sales Index Increases in May 2019- Sixth Highest Value Ever!”
With 80 companies responding, the PMPA Business Trends Index for May 2019 came in at 140, up 3 points (2.2%) from April 2019’s value of 137. This is our Index’s highest value recorded for May, making it our 6th highest month ever recorded. At 140, the May index is up 14 points or 11.1% over the 5-year average of 126 for the May Sales Index. Our year to date average is 140, up 6 points or 4.5% over 2018’s year-end average of 134. We are at 101% of where we were a year ago in May. Up 3% year to date.